Highlights
Following the usual sizeable surplus in January, UK government finances are seen sliding back into the red, with overall net borrowing (PSNB) forecast at £5.0 billion and, after excluding public sector banks (PSNB-X), at £5.9 billion.
The French INSEE business sentiment indicator is seen unchanged at 100, its long-run average, in March.
The French purchasing managers' index (PMI) data is expected to show the key composite output rose to 48.8 in March from February's final 48.1.
In the German PMI data, the manufacturing index is expected to remain below the neutral line of 50 but improve slightly to 43.5 in March after falling to 42.5 in February from January's 45.5. The services index, which improved in February to 48.3, is forecast at 48.8. The composite index is seen rising to 46.8 in March from February's 46.3.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is largely expected to stand pat on the policy rate until at least its next meeting in June. However, persistently sub-2 percent inflation means that a 25-basis point cut is a possibility.
In the Eurozone, the composite PMI is expected to rise to 49.6 in March from 49.2 in February. The manufacturing index is forecast at 47.0, up from February's lower-than-expected 46.5 and the services index at 50.5, also up from February's higher-than-expected 50.2.
In the UK PMI data, services growth slowed slightly in February to 53.8, with March expected to slow further to 53.3. Manufacturing improved slightly but remained in the doldrums at 47.5, with March's consensus at 47.8. The composite is expected to rise slightly to 53.3 from February's 53.0.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25 percent. Swati Dhingra is almost certain to vote again for a 25-basis point cut but will probably be the lone dove.
At its quarterly monetary policy meeting, Taiwan's central bank is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 1.875 percent as inflation accelerated to a 19-month high of 3.08 percent in February from a six-month low of 1.79 percent in January, partly due to the timing of lunar new year holidays. Last June, the bank maintained its policy rate for the first time in more than a year after raising it for the fifth straight time in March 2023.
Among US data, initial jobless claims have remained steady and low, edging down 1,000 in the March 9 week to 209,000 where they are expected to hold unchanged in the March 16 week.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in March is expected to fall back more than 10 points to minus 5.0 versus February's plus 5.2, which was better than expected and ended five months of contraction.
The fourth-quarter current account deficit is expected to widen to $209.0 billion versus a lower-than-expected deficit of $200.3 billion in the third quarter.
The US PMI data is expected to show the manufacturing index will slip back to 51.8 in March from 52.2 in February, which was the best score since July 2022. For services, the consensus is 52.0, down slightly from 52.3.
After January's 3.1 percent monthly climb to a 4.00 million annual rate, existing home sales in February are expected to fall back to a 3.920 million rate.
Down by 0.4 percent in January, the index of US leading economic indicators in February is expected to extend its long two-year streak of decline, down a consensus 0.3 percent.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in"A View from the Fed: A Fireside Discussion at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy," with students and faculty at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT).
Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to accelerate in two key measures in February as the base-year effect of utility subsidies has run its course and after an influx of Asian visitors during their lunar new year holidays boosted hotel fees, offsetting a continued slowdown in price hikes for processed foods.
The core CPI (excluding fresh food prices), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is forecast to rise 2.8 percent on year, a four-month high, after easing to a 22-month low of 2.0 percent in January. The year-over-year increase in the total CPI is also seen climbing to a four-month high of 2.9 percent after moderating to a 22-month low of 2.2 percent. By contrast, underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is expected to decelerate to a 13-month low of 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent. The annual rate for this narrow indicator has been at or above 3.0 percent since December 2022.
The French INSEE business sentiment indicator is seen unchanged at 100, its long-run average, in March.
The French purchasing managers' index (PMI) data is expected to show the key composite output rose to 48.8 in March from February's final 48.1.
In the German PMI data, the manufacturing index is expected to remain below the neutral line of 50 but improve slightly to 43.5 in March after falling to 42.5 in February from January's 45.5. The services index, which improved in February to 48.3, is forecast at 48.8. The composite index is seen rising to 46.8 in March from February's 46.3.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is largely expected to stand pat on the policy rate until at least its next meeting in June. However, persistently sub-2 percent inflation means that a 25-basis point cut is a possibility.
In the Eurozone, the composite PMI is expected to rise to 49.6 in March from 49.2 in February. The manufacturing index is forecast at 47.0, up from February's lower-than-expected 46.5 and the services index at 50.5, also up from February's higher-than-expected 50.2.
In the UK PMI data, services growth slowed slightly in February to 53.8, with March expected to slow further to 53.3. Manufacturing improved slightly but remained in the doldrums at 47.5, with March's consensus at 47.8. The composite is expected to rise slightly to 53.3 from February's 53.0.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25 percent. Swati Dhingra is almost certain to vote again for a 25-basis point cut but will probably be the lone dove.
At its quarterly monetary policy meeting, Taiwan's central bank is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 1.875 percent as inflation accelerated to a 19-month high of 3.08 percent in February from a six-month low of 1.79 percent in January, partly due to the timing of lunar new year holidays. Last June, the bank maintained its policy rate for the first time in more than a year after raising it for the fifth straight time in March 2023.
Among US data, initial jobless claims have remained steady and low, edging down 1,000 in the March 9 week to 209,000 where they are expected to hold unchanged in the March 16 week.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in March is expected to fall back more than 10 points to minus 5.0 versus February's plus 5.2, which was better than expected and ended five months of contraction.
The fourth-quarter current account deficit is expected to widen to $209.0 billion versus a lower-than-expected deficit of $200.3 billion in the third quarter.
The US PMI data is expected to show the manufacturing index will slip back to 51.8 in March from 52.2 in February, which was the best score since July 2022. For services, the consensus is 52.0, down slightly from 52.3.
After January's 3.1 percent monthly climb to a 4.00 million annual rate, existing home sales in February are expected to fall back to a 3.920 million rate.
Down by 0.4 percent in January, the index of US leading economic indicators in February is expected to extend its long two-year streak of decline, down a consensus 0.3 percent.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in"A View from the Fed: A Fireside Discussion at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy," with students and faculty at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT).
Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to accelerate in two key measures in February as the base-year effect of utility subsidies has run its course and after an influx of Asian visitors during their lunar new year holidays boosted hotel fees, offsetting a continued slowdown in price hikes for processed foods.
The core CPI (excluding fresh food prices), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is forecast to rise 2.8 percent on year, a four-month high, after easing to a 22-month low of 2.0 percent in January. The year-over-year increase in the total CPI is also seen climbing to a four-month high of 2.9 percent after moderating to a 22-month low of 2.2 percent. By contrast, underlying inflation measured by the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is expected to decelerate to a 13-month low of 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent. The annual rate for this narrow indicator has been at or above 3.0 percent since December 2022.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
