The March survey showed the first increase in year-on-year sales since last April. At 2 percent the headline index was up from minus 7 percent in February and well above the minus 13 percent market consensus. This was the second consecutive rise and would seem consistent with the latest official data in suggesting that consumer spending in general will perform surprisingly robustly this quarter. That said, the early Easter this year may have provided a boost and retailers expect a renewed fall in April.

Today's report lifts the UK RPI to minus 9 and the RPI-P to exactly 0. In other words, while overall activity is running marginally cooler than market expectations, the real economy is performing just as forecast. Such a combination is positive for interest rate cuts although a move as soon as May still looks a little too early.

The headline sales balance is seen sliding from minus 7 percent to minus 13 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.