ConsensusActualPrevious
Orders Balance-18%-18%-20%

Highlights

The CBI's new trends survey found another contraction in demand at quarter-end. However, at minus 18 percent, March's headline orders gauge was at least a couple of percentage points above its February print and in line with the market consensus. While remaining below its long-run average (minus 13 percent), it also matched its strongest reading since last August.

Expected output (8 percent after 4 percent) and expected selling prices (21 percent after 17 percent) both rose, the latter to their highest level since last May.

The March results put the UK RPI and RPI-P at minus 17 and minus 11 respectively. Overall economic activity is running a little cooler than generally forecast.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The headline orders balance is seen rising from minus 20 percent in February to minus 18 percent.

Definition

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Description

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
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