| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 100 | 102 | 100 | 101 |
Highlights
Sentiment in French manufacturing improved further this month. At 102, March's headline index was a point stronger than its upwardly revised February mark and a couple of points above the market consensus. This was its second consecutive reading above its 100 long-run average and the highest level since March 2023.
Production (1 percent after 0 percent) was marginally firmer and there was better news too on orders books (minus 14 percent after minus 17 percent), general production expectations (minus 7 percent after minus 8 percent) and, in particular, personal production expectations (10 percent after 4 percent) which hit a 6-month high.
Elsewhere, sentiment was more optimistic in both services (102 after 100) and retail trade (101 after 100) but weaker in construction (102 after 103). As a result, the economy-wide gauge rose 2 points to 100, reclaiming its historic norm for the first time since last September.
Today's surprisingly upbeat results bode well for a stronger flash PMI in March but still point to only sluggish growth. Even so, the report boosts the French RPI to 28 and the RPI-P to 19. Both gauges show overall economic activity running quite well ahead of market expectations.
Production (1 percent after 0 percent) was marginally firmer and there was better news too on orders books (minus 14 percent after minus 17 percent), general production expectations (minus 7 percent after minus 8 percent) and, in particular, personal production expectations (10 percent after 4 percent) which hit a 6-month high.
Elsewhere, sentiment was more optimistic in both services (102 after 100) and retail trade (101 after 100) but weaker in construction (102 after 103). As a result, the economy-wide gauge rose 2 points to 100, reclaiming its historic norm for the first time since last September.
Today's surprisingly upbeat results bode well for a stronger flash PMI in March but still point to only sluggish growth. Even so, the report boosts the French RPI to 28 and the RPI-P to 19. Both gauges show overall economic activity running quite well ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sentiment is seen unchanged at 100, its long-run average, in March.
Definition
INSEE is France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. INSEE's business climate indicator aims to summarise the mood of French business leaders. The survey asks questions about output, orders and inventories and expectations for future business. These are synthesised into an overall index of sentiment, adjusted so that the long-run average is 100. The main focus is the manufacturing sector but the survey also provides separate confidence measures for construction, retail trade and services on a monthly basis and for wholesale trade every other month.
Description
If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers.
