Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
Year over Year | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
HICP - M/M | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
HICP - Y/Y | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
Highlights
The monthly change in the flash HICP was unrevised at 0.9 percent but its yearly rate was similarly nudged 0.1 percent higher to 3.2 percent, now 1.2 percentage points above the ECB's target.
The deceleration in the annual CPI rate reflected falling inflation in manufactured products (0.4 percent after 0.7 percent), and, in particular, food (3.6 percent after 5.7 percent). Services (3.2 percent) were only flat and energy (4.3 percent after 1.9 percent) provided a boost. Consequently, core inflation fell from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent, its weakest print since March 2022.
Confirmation of the slowdown in French inflation will be welcomed by the ECB but the central bank will also note the relative stickiness of service sector prices. Today's update puts the French RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 9, both measures showing a moderate degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.