| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.03% | 0.42% | |
| Year over Year | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 5.5 percent on the year for January and February combined, down from growth of 7.4 percent in December but above the consensus forecast of 5.0 percent. Separate data for January and February are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.03 percent in February.
Officials characterised today's data as evidence that"the national economy maintained the momentum of recovery and growth and got off to a stable start" for 2024. However, although industrial production and fixed asset investment both recorded stronger year-over-year growth in the first two months of the year relative to December, growth in retail sales weakened. PMI survey published since the start of the year have shown ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector but modest growth elsewhere in the economy.
Today's monthly activity data for January and February combined were considerably stronger than consensus forecasts. The China RPI rose from minus 7 to plus 50 and the RPI-P rose from minus 13 to plus 60, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Officials characterised today's data as evidence that"the national economy maintained the momentum of recovery and growth and got off to a stable start" for 2024. However, although industrial production and fixed asset investment both recorded stronger year-over-year growth in the first two months of the year relative to December, growth in retail sales weakened. PMI survey published since the start of the year have shown ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector but modest growth elsewhere in the economy.
Today's monthly activity data for January and February combined were considerably stronger than consensus forecasts. The China RPI rose from minus 7 to plus 50 and the RPI-P rose from minus 13 to plus 60, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After rising 7.4 percent in December versus expectations for stronger growth of 8.0 percent, year-over-year sales in the combined months of January and February are expected to slow to 5.0 percent growth.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
