| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
Highlights
Unemployment fell a further 36,000 last quarter to 1.902 million. This followed an 18,000 drop in the previous period and made for a third consecutive decline. The decrease reduced the headline jobless rate from an unrevised 7.6 percent in the third quarter to 7.4 percent, in line with the figure indicated by the monthly data already released.
At the same time, employment increased 144,000 to 23.729 million, extending the unbroken upward trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2022 as full-time jobs advanced a solid 145,000. Overall hours worked rose 0.8 percent on the quarter and 2.4 percent versus a year ago.
Looking ahead, the monthly data for January showed the unemployment rate holding steady at December's 7.2 percent, matching its lowest level since December 2008. Today's update lifts the Italian RPI to minus 14 and the RPI-P to 1. Overall economic activity is still slightly lagging market expectations but only due to the surprising weakness of prices.
At the same time, employment increased 144,000 to 23.729 million, extending the unbroken upward trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2022 as full-time jobs advanced a solid 145,000. Overall hours worked rose 0.8 percent on the quarter and 2.4 percent versus a year ago.
Looking ahead, the monthly data for January showed the unemployment rate holding steady at December's 7.2 percent, matching its lowest level since December 2008. Today's update lifts the Italian RPI to minus 14 and the RPI-P to 1. Overall economic activity is still slightly lagging market expectations but only due to the surprising weakness of prices.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The monthly data already released point to a 7.4 percent jobless rate, down from 7.6 percent in the third quarter.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. In addition to the quarterly data, a less detailed monthly report is also available.
Description
Unemployment data are published on a quarterly basis and are very old by the time they are released (they are published about 11 weeks after the end of the reference quarter). The data are published both by the number of persons out of work and by the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is obtained from the ratio between persons seeking employment and the total labor force as measured by the labor force survey (LFS). Italy uses the International Labour Organisation criteria as adopted by Eurostat to compile the data.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall.
