Consumer prices continued to undershoot expectations in March. A provisional 0.1 percent monthly increase was a tick short of the market consensus but with base effects quite strongly positive, still large enough to boost annual inflation from February's final 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent.

The flash HICP climbed a much steeper 1.2 percent on the month, mainly due to the end of winter sales of clothing and footwear (not included in the CPI). This saw its yearly rate also rise from 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent, still some 0.7 percentage points below the ECB's target.

March's increase in annual CPI inflation was largely attributable to non-regulated energy (minus 10.3 percent after minus 17.2 percent), regulated energy (minus 13.8 percent after minus 18.4 percent) and transport (4.4 percent after 3.8 percent). On the downside, there were falls in unprocessed food (2.6 percent after 4.4 percent) and tobacco (1.9 percent after 2.6 percent). Consequently, core inflation edged just a tick higher to 2.4 percent.

Despite March's acceleration, inflation in Italy is unlikely to cause the ECB any sleepless nights. Still, the pick-up in the HICP rate will make for some upside risk to next week's full Eurozone report following the surprisingly soft French data released earlier this morning. The latest data put the Italian RPI at minus 16 and the RPI-P at minus 12, both measures pointing to a limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.

Consumer price inflation is expected to rise but remain low, at a provisional consensus 1.4 percent in March versus 0.8 percent in February. The monthly rate is seen up 0.2 percent versus February's 0.1 percent increase.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.