Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
HICP - M/M | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
HICP - Y/Y | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Highlights
However, the flash HICP was revised a tick lower to show no monthly change which put its yearly rate at also 0.8 percent, now 0.1 percentage point below December's final mark and 1.2 percentage points below the ECB's target.
February's stable annual CPI rate masked a deceleration in unprocessed food (4.4 percent after 7.5 percent) and processed food (3.4 percent after 4.5 percent). Non-energy industrial goods (1.2 percent after 1.7 percent) and transport services (3.8 percent after 4.2 percent) also posted falls. However, partial offsets were provided by non-regulated energy (minus 17.2 percent after minus 20.4 percent), regulated energy (minus 18.4 percent after minus 20.6 percent) and communication (0.8 percent after minus 0.2 percent). Even so, core inflation still declined again, easing from 2.7 percent to a downwardly revised 2.3 percent.
The final February data again show that inflation in Italy is nothing much for the ECB to worry about. At 2.6 percent, the narrow core HICP rate is still above the 2.0 percent target but not by much and it has fallen every month since last September. Indeed, today's report puts the Italian RPI at minus 10 and the RPI-P at 7, the gap between the two gauges showing that recent inflationary shocks have been on the downside.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.