| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 97.0 | 95.8 | 95.9 | |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 88.6 | 87.3 | 87.5 | 87.6 |
| Consumer Confidence | 96.5 | 97.0 | 97.3 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence rebounded in March but failed to recover all of February's loss. At 97.0, the overall sentiment gauge was up from the mid-quarter's marginally firmer revised 95.9 but still short of January's 98.0.
Confidence in manufacturing (88.6 after 87.5) improved by more than expected to stand at its highest level since last August but it remains historically weak. Elsewhere, there was a modest gain in services (100.7 after 100.2) and more significant increases in construction (105.8 after 104.3) and retail trade (104.6 after 100.8).
However, at the same time, consumer confidence (96.5 after 97.0) deteriorated, although it still held onto its second highest value since the middle of 2023.
Overall, today's update leaves a soft picture of sentiment in most areas of the economy. Moreover, with an RPI of minus 23 and an RPI-P of minus 12, economic activity in general is falling a little short of market expectations.
Confidence in manufacturing (88.6 after 87.5) improved by more than expected to stand at its highest level since last August but it remains historically weak. Elsewhere, there was a modest gain in services (100.7 after 100.2) and more significant increases in construction (105.8 after 104.3) and retail trade (104.6 after 100.8).
However, at the same time, consumer confidence (96.5 after 97.0) deteriorated, although it still held onto its second highest value since the middle of 2023.
Overall, today's update leaves a soft picture of sentiment in most areas of the economy. Moreover, with an RPI of minus 23 and an RPI-P of minus 12, economic activity in general is falling a little short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in manufacturing is expected to edge up to 87.6 and in the consumer sector to rise to 97.3.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
