| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level | -36 | -42 | -41 |
Highlights
The monthly sentiment index was little changed in February. At minus 42, the headline index was down just a point versus January but 7 points short of its level a year ago and below the market consensus. However, the latest reading was in line with its long-run average and leaves intact a gently rising trend since last October.
Amongst the main components most monthly changes were similarly very limited. However, the economic outlook deteriorated (minus 53 after minus 50) as did job security (minus 26 after minus 14). Planned purchases were essentially flat.
Overall, the results suggest no meaningful shift in consumer confidence which should equate with a modest increase in household spending over coming months. Today's update puts the Swiss RPI at 7 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. In other words, economic activity in general is performing much as the forecasters expected.
Amongst the main components most monthly changes were similarly very limited. However, the economic outlook deteriorated (minus 53 after minus 50) as did job security (minus 26 after minus 14). Planned purchases were essentially flat.
Overall, the results suggest no meaningful shift in consumer confidence which should equate with a modest increase in household spending over coming months. Today's update puts the Swiss RPI at 7 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. In other words, economic activity in general is performing much as the forecasters expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The climate index is expected to improve from minus 41 in January to minus 36.
Definition
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) compiles a quarterly survey of consumer attitudes on present and expected economic and financial conditions. The survey covers around 1,200 Swiss households and results are synthesised into a single summary consumer climate index that attempts to measure consumer sentiment.
Description
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often a major influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Consumer spending accounts for a major portion of the Swiss economy, so investors want to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. An increasing important element of the survey is the question concerning current buying intentions.
