SOYBEANS:
US soybean planting intentions came in at 86.51 million acres versus an average trade expectation of 86.53 million and a range of expectations from 84.3 to 89.0 million. The USDA Outlook Forum estimate was 87.5 million acres, and last year's planted area was 83.6 million. US soybean stocks on March 1 came in at 1.845 billion bushels versus 1.835 billion expected (range 1.740-1.986 billion). This was up from 1.687 billion on March 1, 2023.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The acreage number was very close to the average guess and neutral for prices. USDA's acreage of 86.51 compares to the Outlook Forum estimate of 87.5 million, Pro Farmer at 86.8, Allendale at 85.8, and Farm Futures at 86.0. Combined bean and corn acreage was 1.7 million acres, which was below the total for last year. The bean/corn ratio has favored more bean acreage for the past two months, averaging the second highest of the past six years. History shows farmers enjoy planting corn and that an early start can result in more corn and fewer bean acres than the March estimates suggest. For this reason, the June acreage report could be lower than today's estimates. The bean stocks number, though a two-year high, came in slightly above estimates but not enough to be a major market-mover. The price reaction to the report has been muted, and trader focus will be all about the weather in the US, Brazil, and Argentina next week. May Soybeans should see price support on any breaks below 1170 but significant resistance above 1220 until a major weather issue arises.

CORN:
Corn planting intentions came in at 90.036 million acres versus an average expectation of 91.8 million acres and a range of expectations from 90.0 to 93.8 million. The USDA Outlook Forum estimate was 91.0 million, and last year's planted area was 94.641 million acres. US corn stocks on March 1 totaled 8.347 billion bushels versus 8.445 billion expected (range 8.129-8.800 billion). This was up from 7.396 billion on March 1, 2023.

PRICE OUTLOOK: USDA came out with a bullish acreage number, the second lowest of the past six years, right at the low end of the estimated range, and below pre-report private estimates. The USDA's acreage of 90.036 compares to recent estimates from the Outlook Forum of 91.0 million acres, Pro Farmer of 91.8, Allendale 93.5 and Farm Futures at 92.4 million. The USDA's farmer surveys went out at a time when the bean/corn ratio favored fewer corn acres, and that certainly came to fruition in today's report. Corn stocks were slightly below the average guess but the highest in five years. Post-report price reaction has been positive. However, today's number could be the low end of the acreage estimates for the year, as an early start to planting could result in higher plantings for the June 28 update. Last week's highs of 445 3/4 in May Corn could be vulnerable since funds are heavily short, but a sustained move over 450 will likely take a crop weather issue. Support should be strong at today's low 426, and pullbacks will find buyers.

WHEAT:
The grain stocks report showed US all wheat stocks on March 1 at 1.087 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.047 billion and a range of expectations from 1.000 to 1.081 billion. This was up from 941 million a year ago. US All Wheat planting intentions came in at 47.498 million acres versus 47.3 million expected and a range of 46.0 and 49.8 million. The USDA Outlook Forum had all wheat acres at 47.0 million acres. This compares to a 2023 final planted area of 49.6 million. US winter wheat intentions came in at 34.135 million acres versus 34.7 million expected (range 34.0-36.8 million) and 36.7 million in 2023. Spring wheat intentions came in at 11.335 million acres versus 10.9 million expected (range 10.1-11.9 million) and 11.2 million in 2023. Durum intentions came in 2.028 million acres versus 1.7 million expected (range 1.5-1.9 million) and 1.7 million in 2023.

PRICE OUTLOOK: USDA grain stocks were above the high end of guesses, and US all wheat acreage was above guesses as well. Winter wheat acreage declined, spring wheat acreage increased, and durum acreage was well above the highest guess. The wheat market has been suffering from a lack of a major crop threat in the US and around the globe and weak world prices due to plentiful exportable supplies. This report does offer some support from the winter acreage decrease, but with all wheat acres and stocks above guesses, longer-term bearish headwinds remain in place. Spillover strength from corn and short covering in wheat after prices did not fall on the bearish report are supportive factors heading into next week. May Chicago Wheat may find significant resistance at 575 and again at the 100-day moving average of 596.

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.