The CFNAI is up to a positive 0.05 in February after a downward revision to minus 0.54 in January. The February reading is well above the minus 0.50 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The jump to positive territory reflects increases in three of four categories. However, the three-month moving average is down to minus 0.18 in February from minus 0.11 in January and has been negative for the past 16 months. The underlying trend for the CFNAI is consistent with moderating economic growth.

February details show narrowly positive readings for production-related indicators as well as sales, orders, and inventories. And employment indicators edged above the neutral mark from just below it. Personal consumption and housing was contribution for February.

The national activity index is expected to fall more deeply to minus 0.50 in February versus January's much deeper-than-expected 0.30 decline.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.