| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
Highlights
The labour market strengthened at the start of the year, albeit from a slightly weaker revised base in December. Joblessness declined a further 34,000 on the month which was enough to reduce the unemployment rate from the previous period's upwardly revised 6.5 percent to 6.4 percent. This was in line with the market consensus but also matched the all-time low.
The dip in the overall rate mainly reflected falls in both France (7.5 percent after 7.6 percent) and Spain (11.7 percent after 11.8 percent). Germany (3.1 percent) and Italy (7.2 percent) were both unchanged.
The ECB will view today's report with some concern. The Eurozone labour market remains very tight, and possibly tight enough to prevent the decline in wage rates needed if the bank is to meet its price stability goals. As such, the January data provide further reason for the Governing Council to be cautious about the speed at which key interest rates are cut in 2024. Today's updates put the Eurozone RPI at 15 and the RPI-P at 4, essentially indicating just a mild degree of outperformance by overall economic activity versus expectations.
The dip in the overall rate mainly reflected falls in both France (7.5 percent after 7.6 percent) and Spain (11.7 percent after 11.8 percent). Germany (3.1 percent) and Italy (7.2 percent) were both unchanged.
The ECB will view today's report with some concern. The Eurozone labour market remains very tight, and possibly tight enough to prevent the decline in wage rates needed if the bank is to meet its price stability goals. As such, the January data provide further reason for the Governing Council to be cautious about the speed at which key interest rates are cut in 2024. Today's updates put the Eurozone RPI at 15 and the RPI-P at 4, essentially indicating just a mild degree of outperformance by overall economic activity versus expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for January's unemployment rate is no change at 6.4 percent. Unemployment in the Eurozone has been running at record lows.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
Description
Unemployment data are closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.
Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.
Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.
Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
