Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | 0.6% | 0.6% | -0.4% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
Narrow Core - M/M | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.9% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
Highlights
Core inflation was similarly unrevised. The narrowest measure was down 0.2 percentage points versus January at 3.1 percent, its lowest post since March 2022. Excluding just energy and unprocessed food, the rate dropped a steeper 0.3 percentage points to 3.3 percent. Elsewhere, inflation in non-energy industrial goods decreased from 2.0 percent to 1.6 percent and it also declined sharply in food, alcohol and tobacco (4.0 percent after 5.6 percent). Energy (minus 3.7 percent after minus 6.1 percent) provided another boost and, significantly, services (4.0 percent) were revised a tick firmer to stand unchanged versus January.
Regionally, headline inflation was lower in most member states, including France (3.2 percent after 3.4 percent), Germany (2.7 percent after 3.1 percent), Italy (0.8 percent after 0.9 percent) and Spain (2.9 percent after 3.5 percent).
The final February data should sit pretty well with the ECB and will underpin speculation that a cut in ECB interest rates is not very far away. Still, most Governing Council members will want to see further progress in the core rate and some additional softening in inflation in services. Today's report also puts the Eurozone RPI at 5 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. Economic activity in general is performing much as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.