| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$11.5B | A$11.027B | A$10.959B | A$10.743B |
| Imports - M/M | 1.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | -1.6% | -5.6% | -5.6% | |
| Exports - M/M | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -7.2% | -6.3% | -7.0% |
Highlights
Australia's balance of trade in goods widened from a A$10.743 billion surplus in December to A$11.027 billion in January, below the consensus forecast of A$11.5 billion. Exports recorded steady growth while growth in imports moderated.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.6 percent on the month in January after advancing 1.5 percent in December. Exports of non-rural goods fell on the month, but exports of rural goods recorded solid growth after a previous decline. Exports fell 7.2 percent on the year in January after dropping 7.0 percent in December.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 1.3 percent on the month in January, slowing from an increase of 4.0 percent in December. Imports of consumption goods recorded slower growth while imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell after a previous increase. This was partly offset by a rebound in imports of capital goods. Total imports fell 1.6 percent on the year in original terms in January after dropping 5.6 percent in December.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.6 percent on the month in January after advancing 1.5 percent in December. Exports of non-rural goods fell on the month, but exports of rural goods recorded solid growth after a previous decline. Exports fell 7.2 percent on the year in January after dropping 7.0 percent in December.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 1.3 percent on the month in January, slowing from an increase of 4.0 percent in December. Imports of consumption goods recorded slower growth while imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell after a previous increase. This was partly offset by a rebound in imports of capital goods. Total imports fell 1.6 percent on the year in original terms in January after dropping 5.6 percent in December.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in January is a surplus of A$11.5 billion versus December's as-expected A$11.0 billion surplus.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
