S&P's flash PMIs for March may have forecasters firming their estimates for the ISM manufacturing index and perhaps softening their calls for ISM services.

March's manufacturing flash edged 3 tenths higher to 52.5 for the third straight plus 50 reading that, however, has not (at least yet) correlated with improving strength for the rival ISM index which has stubbornly held below 50, falling 1.3 points in February to a lower-than-expected 47.8 that belied strength in S&P's sample.

S&P's services PMI edged 6 tenths lower in March's flash to 51.7 extending a long run of low 50 readings going back nearly a year. ISM's services index has held slightly stronger over this time though slowing by nearly a point in February to 52.6.

Orders and employment for the two S&P samples combined slowed in March though business confidence improved especially for services. In contrast to other early indications for March, price pressures increased in today's report.

In sum, S&P's PMIs are consistent with slow but constructive growth for the US economy.

March's consensus for manufacturing is 51.8 versus 52.2 in February which was the best score since July 2022. For services, the consensus is 52.0 versus 52.3.

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. The report tracks changes in variables such as new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across both manufacturing and services. Production is also tracked, defined as"production" for manufacturing and"output" for services. Results are synthesized into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by S&P Global.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.