ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%-0.5% to 0.2%-0.3%0.4%

Highlights

Wholesale inventories fell 0.3 percent in January, a steeper draw than the 0.1 percent decline in the first estimate. The draw follows a 0.4 percent build in December that nevertheless leaves wholesale inventories down 2.5 percent on the year.

Durable inventories did rise 0.2 percent in January led by computer equipment and also lumber and autos, but nondurables fell 1.0 percent with steep declines for farm products and chemicals that offset a build for petroleum.

Sales at the wholesale level fell 1.7 percent in January with durables down 0.7 percent and nondurables down 2.5 percent. Autos were a notable gainer at 3.3 percent on the month and farm products a notable loser, down 3.5 percent.

Definition

Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories.

Description

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.
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