| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | -0.7% | 0.1% to 0.6% | -0.8% | -1.3% | |
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | -1.8% | -2.4% | -2.2% |
Highlights
Imported inflation didn't slow down as much as expected in February, when import prices rose 0.3 percent on the month, above the 0.2 percent consensus in an Econoday survey, following a 0.8 percent advance in January. On a 12-month basis, however, import prices contracted 0.8 percent, slightly more than expected, after declining 1.3 percent the previous month.
Nonfuel import prices were up 0.2 percent on the month and fuel prices up 1.8 percent. The indices were down 0.5 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, year-over-year.
Export prices have rebounded the past two reports, up 0.8 percent in February on top of an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in January, beating expectations of 0.1 percent and even the highest forecast of 0.6 percent. Export prices were down 1.8 percent year-over-year after dropping 2.2 percent the previous month.
Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices increased 0.8 percent from January, for 12-month declines of 1.0 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively.
Nonfuel import prices were up 0.2 percent on the month and fuel prices up 1.8 percent. The indices were down 0.5 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, year-over-year.
Export prices have rebounded the past two reports, up 0.8 percent in February on top of an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in January, beating expectations of 0.1 percent and even the highest forecast of 0.6 percent. Export prices were down 1.8 percent year-over-year after dropping 2.2 percent the previous month.
Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices increased 0.8 percent from January, for 12-month declines of 1.0 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices in February are expected to increase 0.2 percent versus January's 0.8 percent rise. Export prices, which in January also rose 0.8 percent, are expected to edge 0.1 percent higher.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
