Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -3.0% | -4.9% to -2.0% | -3.6% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
Highlights
Orders for core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) were unchanged in January, down marginally from a 0.1 percent increase in the first estimate and following a 0.6 percent decline in December. This reading has only risen once since August last year and confirms the Federal Reserve's cautious assessment of US business investment.
Orders for commercial aircraft (nondefense aircraft and parts) fell 58.9 percent in the month following a 1.0 percent rise in December and an 84.1 percent surge in November. This reading bears close watching for the health of US manufacturing given Boeing's emerging quality troubles. Unfilled orders for commercial aircraft slowed to a 0.6 percent gain in January from a long string of strong gains in prior months including 3.3 and 3.2 percent in December and November.
Total unfilled orders managed only a 0.2 percent gain in January while inventories held flat, edging 0.1 percent lower. Total shipments fell 1.0 percent on top of December's 0.5 percent decline.
The outlook for US manufacturing is uncertain given the weakness of recent data. In fact, US economic data as a whole have begun to come in below expectations as tracked by the Relative Performance Index which is at minus 33, an emerging trend perhaps and something to watch in the days leading up to Friday's employment report.