| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-City Adjusted - M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 20-City Unadjusted - M/M | -0.1% | -0.3% | |||
| 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y | 6.5% | 6.3% to 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% |
Highlights
Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index edged 0.1 percent higher in January, slowing from an upward revised 0.3 percent rise in December. Yet the unadjusted annual rate accelerated, to 6.6 percent from 6.2 percent for the best showing since November 2022.
San Diego and LA are at the top of the 12-month list, up 11.2 and 8.6 percent respectively, with Portland at the bottom but climbing, up 0.9 percent. The report notes how"tightly bunched up" the national market is, with the separation of gains narrow regardless of city or neighborhood.
Turning to the monthly showings the report notes that prices in January were held back by high borrowing costs, as 17 of the 20 posted declines.
San Diego and LA are at the top of the 12-month list, up 11.2 and 8.6 percent respectively, with Portland at the bottom but climbing, up 0.9 percent. The report notes how"tightly bunched up" the national market is, with the separation of gains narrow regardless of city or neighborhood.
Turning to the monthly showings the report notes that prices in January were held back by high borrowing costs, as 17 of the 20 posted declines.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.2 percent in January to match December's as-expected 0.2 percent increase that lifted unadjusted annual growth from 5.4 to 6.1 percent which was the strongest result in more than a year. January's consensus for the latter is 6.5 percent.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
