ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level209K205K to 220K210K209K212K
Initial Claims - Change-2K-1K2K
4-Week Moving Average211.25K208.00K208.75K

Highlights

As expected, jobless claims were little changed in the week ended March 16 when they edged down 2,000 to 210,000, after rising 2,000 the previous week to an upwardly revised 212,000 level. The 4-week average was up 2,500 to 211,250.

Over the past four weeks, claims have been relatively steady between 210,000 and 213,000, leaving the 4-week average within a tight range of 208,500 to 211,250.

Continuing claims in lagging data for the March 9 week rose an additional 4,000 to 1.807 million after increasing 9,000 the previous week, with this 4-week average at 1.802 million, up from 1.797 million in the March 2 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers was unchanged at 1.2 percent.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Initial claims have remained steady and low, edging down 1,000 in the March 9 week to 209,000 where they're expected to hold unchanged in the March 16 week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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