Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
Highlights
Slower quarter-over-quarter headline growth reflects weaker domestic demand. Consumer spending rose 0.2 percent on the quarter in the three months to December after an increase of 0.4 percent in the three months to September. Private investment also recorded weaker growth, increasing 0.7 percent after advancing 1.1 percent previously, while government spending rose 0.6 percent on the quarter after a previous increase of 1.1 percent. Net trade made a positive contribution to headline GDP growth of 0.6 percentage points after a negative contribution of 0.6 percentage points previously, though this largely reflected a sharp decline in imports.
Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered another increase in official policy rates in December after they had been left on hold over the previous quarter. At their latest meeting, held early February, officials left rates on hold again but advised that they could not rule out further rate increases. Today's data, however, suggest that previous policy tightening is continuing to weigh on demand and may prompt some shift in the RBA's guidance at its next meeting later this month.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.