| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Japanese payrolls posted a 19th straight rise on year in February amid labor shortages at factories, communications firms, hotels and restaurants, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a five-month high of 2.6 percent after falling to a nearly four-year low of 2.4 percent in January from 2.5 percent in December. February's consensus was 2.4 percent.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired jumped 22.2 percent after two months of decline. The number of those who quit to look for other openings rose 2.7 percent after a fall in January while that of people who began looking for work and thus were counted as being unemployed also rose for the second month in a row, up 6.5 percent. The number of employed men posted the second straight monthly gain and that of women rebounded sharply.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stands at minus 16, below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected after underperforming with a narrower margin recently. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI is at minus 29.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 610,000 to an unadjusted 67.28 million in February for the 19th straight increase, led by a sharp rise among women and also a rebound in men. Both regular and non-regular jobs marked sizable gains. This follows increases of 250,000 in January, 380,000 in December and 560,000 in November.
But the number of unemployed also rose, up 30,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.77 million in February, after falling 10,000 in January and 20,000 in December and rising 40,000 in November. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020. December's 1.56 million was the lowest since 1.46 million in December 2019.
The overall employment increase in February from a year earlier was led by a continued surge in job creation at information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers. The number of workers in the manufacturing industry rose for a fourth straight month and the pace of increase accelerated. The hotels, restaurants and bars category also continued hiring more people to fill vacancies but at a slower pace. There was a rebound in jobs in the medical and welfare category after a slump in January. Even financial firms raised payrolls from year-earlier levels after cutting jobs for eight months. Employment in the wholesale and retail industry rose for the first time in four months.
On the downside, employment in the real-estate and goods leasing category plunged in February after showing a solid gain in January. The construction industry slashed jobs on the year by a wide margin in February after shedding slightly in January and adding in December.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired jumped 22.2 percent after two months of decline. The number of those who quit to look for other openings rose 2.7 percent after a fall in January while that of people who began looking for work and thus were counted as being unemployed also rose for the second month in a row, up 6.5 percent. The number of employed men posted the second straight monthly gain and that of women rebounded sharply.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stands at minus 16, below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing slightly worse than expected after underperforming with a narrower margin recently. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI is at minus 29.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 610,000 to an unadjusted 67.28 million in February for the 19th straight increase, led by a sharp rise among women and also a rebound in men. Both regular and non-regular jobs marked sizable gains. This follows increases of 250,000 in January, 380,000 in December and 560,000 in November.
But the number of unemployed also rose, up 30,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.77 million in February, after falling 10,000 in January and 20,000 in December and rising 40,000 in November. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020. December's 1.56 million was the lowest since 1.46 million in December 2019.
The overall employment increase in February from a year earlier was led by a continued surge in job creation at information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers. The number of workers in the manufacturing industry rose for a fourth straight month and the pace of increase accelerated. The hotels, restaurants and bars category also continued hiring more people to fill vacancies but at a slower pace. There was a rebound in jobs in the medical and welfare category after a slump in January. Even financial firms raised payrolls from year-earlier levels after cutting jobs for eight months. Employment in the wholesale and retail industry rose for the first time in four months.
On the downside, employment in the real-estate and goods leasing category plunged in February after showing a solid gain in January. The construction industry slashed jobs on the year by a wide margin in February after shedding slightly in January and adding in December.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 19th straight rise on year in February, reflecting labor shortages at factories, retailers, hotels and restaurants. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4 percent, unchanged from January, when it fell from 2.5 percent in December to the level unseen for nearly four years. People are quitting to look for better openings or start looking for work in tight labor conditions and amid reports that many firms are raising wages at a faster pace.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
