Highlights
UK GDP data for the month of December is expected to show a 0.2 percent fall following a 0.3 percent expansion in November. Fourth quarter GDP is seen dipping 0.1 percent on quarter after a 0.1 percent slip in the third quarter and no growth in the second quarter, which, absent any revisions, would put the economy is a mild recession.
In other UK data, industrial production in December is expected to fall a monthly 0.1 percent after rising an as-expected 0.3 percent in November. Absent revisions, December would need an improbably steep 3.8 percent monthly spurt just to keep the quarter flat. From a year earlier, production is forecast at minus 0.3 percent, down from minus 0.1 percent last time.
The UK'S goods trade deficit is put at £14.9 billion in December, widening from November's £14.19 billion.
In Switzerland, producer prices are expected to rise a monthly 0.3 percent in January following a 0.6 percent drop in December.
The Swiss official SECO quarterly consumer climate survey is expected to show the January index rise from October's minus 40 to minus 28.
In the US, new jobless claims for the February 8 week are expected to come in at 219,000, up from 218,000 in the prior week.
January retail sales are expected to fall 0.1 percent versus December's slightly better-than-expected 0.6 percent gain. Retail sales have beaten Econoday's consensus the last six reports. December's gain in sales excluding autos was 0.4 percent, with January expected to rise 0.2 percent; Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales are expected to rise 0.3 percent, slowing from a 0.6 percent increase the previous month.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in February is expected to improve marginally to minus 9.0 from January's minus 10.6, which was only slightly weaker than expected but showed substantial contraction in both new and unfilled orders.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index in February is expected to rebound to minus 12.5 after January's deep and completely unexpected plunge to minus 43.7, which was the lowest since May 2020 during the pandemic shutdown.
Import prices were unchanged in December, with January's expectations at a 0.1 percent dip; export prices, which in December fell 0.9 percent, are expected to fall 0.2 percent. Pressures in this report have been deflationary for the past year.
US industrial production is expected to rise 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent gain in December. Manufacturing output is expected to fall 0.1 percent after a 0.1 percent rise. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 78.8 percent following 78.6 percent in December.
Business inventories in December are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month following a 0.1 percent decline in November.
Forecasters expect the housing market index to rise further in February to 46 after rebounding a substantial 7 points in January to 44.
Canadian housing starts are expected to slow to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 235,000 units in January versus December's higher-than-expected 249,255 amid easing but still high mortgage costs.
Among Fed talk, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will speak on"The Dollar's International Role" before the Global Interdependence Center/University of the Bahamas Conference:"Climate, Currency, and Central Banking" at 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT).
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Money Marketeers of New York University at 7 p.m. EST (midnight GMT).
In other UK data, industrial production in December is expected to fall a monthly 0.1 percent after rising an as-expected 0.3 percent in November. Absent revisions, December would need an improbably steep 3.8 percent monthly spurt just to keep the quarter flat. From a year earlier, production is forecast at minus 0.3 percent, down from minus 0.1 percent last time.
The UK'S goods trade deficit is put at £14.9 billion in December, widening from November's £14.19 billion.
In Switzerland, producer prices are expected to rise a monthly 0.3 percent in January following a 0.6 percent drop in December.
The Swiss official SECO quarterly consumer climate survey is expected to show the January index rise from October's minus 40 to minus 28.
In the US, new jobless claims for the February 8 week are expected to come in at 219,000, up from 218,000 in the prior week.
January retail sales are expected to fall 0.1 percent versus December's slightly better-than-expected 0.6 percent gain. Retail sales have beaten Econoday's consensus the last six reports. December's gain in sales excluding autos was 0.4 percent, with January expected to rise 0.2 percent; Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales are expected to rise 0.3 percent, slowing from a 0.6 percent increase the previous month.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in February is expected to improve marginally to minus 9.0 from January's minus 10.6, which was only slightly weaker than expected but showed substantial contraction in both new and unfilled orders.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index in February is expected to rebound to minus 12.5 after January's deep and completely unexpected plunge to minus 43.7, which was the lowest since May 2020 during the pandemic shutdown.
Import prices were unchanged in December, with January's expectations at a 0.1 percent dip; export prices, which in December fell 0.9 percent, are expected to fall 0.2 percent. Pressures in this report have been deflationary for the past year.
US industrial production is expected to rise 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent gain in December. Manufacturing output is expected to fall 0.1 percent after a 0.1 percent rise. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 78.8 percent following 78.6 percent in December.
Business inventories in December are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month following a 0.1 percent decline in November.
Forecasters expect the housing market index to rise further in February to 46 after rebounding a substantial 7 points in January to 44.
Canadian housing starts are expected to slow to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 235,000 units in January versus December's higher-than-expected 249,255 amid easing but still high mortgage costs.
Among Fed talk, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will speak on"The Dollar's International Role" before the Global Interdependence Center/University of the Bahamas Conference:"Climate, Currency, and Central Banking" at 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT).
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Money Marketeers of New York University at 7 p.m. EST (midnight GMT).
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
