Highlights
This week, the focus is on the US CPI data on Tuesday, which should show easing in overall price pressures in January amid lower retail gasoline prices and calm commodities markets. But services costs remain sticky, giving more time for Federal Reserve policymakers to ponder when to start cutting interest rates. Lower mortgage rates and supply shortages are expected to lead to a rebound in US housing starts in January on Friday. Japan's GDP data for the fourth quarter is expected to post a modest rebound after marking its first contraction in four quarters previously.
It is a relatively quiet week in Asia due to the lunar new year holidays in China all week and some other Asian markets parts of the week. This will distort trade data in the region. Last year, when the lunar new year was celebrated around Jan. 22, growth in Japanese export values slowed to a single-digit percentage rise in the month partly due to suspended shipments during the holidays, although Japan does not observe the lunar new year. Cargo flows are expected to slow in February this year, with some rush pre-holiday shipments in January.
Monday's data calendars in Europe and North America are thin.
Before the US markets open, India will release a couple of indicators at 7 a.m. EST (1200 GMT). Consumer inflation is forecast to ease to 5.10 percent in January after rising to 5.69 percent in December from 5.55 percent in November. The year-over-year increase in industrial production is expected to remain low at 2.6 percent in January after slowing sharply to an eighth-month low of 2.4 percent in December from a recent peak of 11.6 percent in November.
In the US Treasury statement, forecasters see a $21.0 billion deficit in January that would compare with a deficit of $129.4 billion in December this year and a deficit of $38.8 billion January a year-ago. January is the fourth month of the government's fiscal year.
Among Fed officials, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).
Japanese markets are closed on Monday in observance of the National Foundation Day which falls on Sunday.
Producer inflation in Japan (data at 0850 JST Tuesday/6:50 p.m. EST/2350 GMT Monday) is expected to be unchanged on the year for a second straight month in January after rising for 33 months until November as government subsidies continued to cap utility costs and the prices for lumber, steel and chemicals remained below year-earlier levels amid slower global demand. The corporate goods price index (CGPI) could post its first year-over-year decline in nearly three years in January given easing gains in other commodities. The CGPI is also forecast to be flat on the month after rising 0.3 percent in the previous two months. The deprecation of the yen and expectations for China's economic stimulus measures lifted the import costs for non-ferrous metals while domestic gasoline and other fuel prices may show a pullback after rising in the prior month.
It is a relatively quiet week in Asia due to the lunar new year holidays in China all week and some other Asian markets parts of the week. This will distort trade data in the region. Last year, when the lunar new year was celebrated around Jan. 22, growth in Japanese export values slowed to a single-digit percentage rise in the month partly due to suspended shipments during the holidays, although Japan does not observe the lunar new year. Cargo flows are expected to slow in February this year, with some rush pre-holiday shipments in January.
Monday's data calendars in Europe and North America are thin.
Before the US markets open, India will release a couple of indicators at 7 a.m. EST (1200 GMT). Consumer inflation is forecast to ease to 5.10 percent in January after rising to 5.69 percent in December from 5.55 percent in November. The year-over-year increase in industrial production is expected to remain low at 2.6 percent in January after slowing sharply to an eighth-month low of 2.4 percent in December from a recent peak of 11.6 percent in November.
In the US Treasury statement, forecasters see a $21.0 billion deficit in January that would compare with a deficit of $129.4 billion in December this year and a deficit of $38.8 billion January a year-ago. January is the fourth month of the government's fiscal year.
Among Fed officials, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).
Japanese markets are closed on Monday in observance of the National Foundation Day which falls on Sunday.
Producer inflation in Japan (data at 0850 JST Tuesday/6:50 p.m. EST/2350 GMT Monday) is expected to be unchanged on the year for a second straight month in January after rising for 33 months until November as government subsidies continued to cap utility costs and the prices for lumber, steel and chemicals remained below year-earlier levels amid slower global demand. The corporate goods price index (CGPI) could post its first year-over-year decline in nearly three years in January given easing gains in other commodities. The CGPI is also forecast to be flat on the month after rising 0.3 percent in the previous two months. The deprecation of the yen and expectations for China's economic stimulus measures lifted the import costs for non-ferrous metals while domestic gasoline and other fuel prices may show a pullback after rising in the prior month.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
