The CBI's February survey found sales still falling on the year in mid-quarter but at a notably slower pace than in January and by much less than the market consensus. The headline measure climbed from a lowly minus 50 percent to minus 7 percent, its highest mark since April 2023 and some 26 percentage points stronger than forecast. That said, annual sales growth has now been negative for 10 straight months and retailers anticipate a renewed softening in March (minus 15 percent).

Still, the surprisingly respectable February update lifts both the UK RPI and RPI-P to 29, the former's best mark so far in 2024 and further reason for expecting the BoE MPC to be cautious about cutting Bank Rate too soon.

The headline sales measure in February is seen retracing much of January's surprise 18 percentage point drop to stand at minus 33 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.