| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -25% | -20% | -30% |
Highlights
The CBI's February survey found a further contraction in demand but by less than expected and much less sharply than at the start of the year. The headline orders gauge rose from January's minus 30 percent, itself the second worst outturn since the Covid lockdown in January 2021, to minus 20 percent, some 5 percentage points stronger than the market consensus and a 5-month high. Even so, the measure remains well below its long-run average (minus 13 percent).
Moreover, past output (minus 19 percent) slumped to a 6-month low and, while still positive, expectations for the next three months (4 percent) also deteriorated. However, of note, expected selling prices (19 percent) climbed to their highest mark since July last year.
The mid-quarter results put both the UK RPI and RPI-P at 23. This shows a useful degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations and helps to ease pressure on the BoE MPC for an early cut in Bank Rate.
Moreover, past output (minus 19 percent) slumped to a 6-month low and, while still positive, expectations for the next three months (4 percent) also deteriorated. However, of note, expected selling prices (19 percent) climbed to their highest mark since July last year.
The mid-quarter results put both the UK RPI and RPI-P at 23. This shows a useful degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations and helps to ease pressure on the BoE MPC for an early cut in Bank Rate.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline orders balance is expect to rise from January's minus 30 percent to minus 25 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
