| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Aug-23 | 11.064 | 98.0% | 2.003 | 94.9% | 1.885 | 94.1% | 6.023 |
| Sep-23 | 11.127 | 98.1% | 2.198 | 105.7% | 1.664 | 89.5% | 6.026 |
| Oct-23 | 11.604 | 100.8% | 2.170 | 104.1% | 1.763 | 97.7% | 5.972 |
| Nov-23 | 11.956 | 101.9% | 1.865 | 97.9% | 1.751 | 92.6% | 5.752 |
| Dec-23 | 12.016 | 102.8% | 1.698 | 95.2% | 1.724 | 99.0% | 5.949 |
| Jan-24 | 11.930 | 101.7% | 1.792 | 92.6% | 1.844 | 99.9% | 6.366 |
| Feb-24 | 11.797 | 100.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.637 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Feb | 100.1% | 99.4% | 101.0% | 95.9% |
| Placements | Jan | 87.7% | 81.6% | 94.0% | 96.4% |
| Marketings | Jan | 99.8% | 98.6% | 100.3% | 104.1% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of January at 92.6% of last year versus an average trade expectation of 88% and a range of expectations from 81.6% to 94.0%. Marketings for January came in at 99.9% of last year versus 99.8% expected (range 98.6%-100.3%). February 1 on feed supply was 100.4% of last year versus 100.1% expected (range of 99.4% to 101.0%).
The report was bearish, particularly for the deferred months, as January placements came in well above expectations (though still down from last year). The on-feed number was only slightly higher than expected, which is less bearish for the closer-in contracts. However, the disappointment with the placements number will likely dominate market action in the early going on Monday. Look for the market to open 2.00-3.00 lower.
The report was bearish, particularly for the deferred months, as January placements came in well above expectations (though still down from last year). The on-feed number was only slightly higher than expected, which is less bearish for the closer-in contracts. However, the disappointment with the placements number will likely dominate market action in the early going on Monday. Look for the market to open 2.00-3.00 lower.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
