ActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%0.5%
Year over Year-2.2%-0.9%

Highlights

Broad money dipped 0.1 percent on the month in January which, with base effects strongly negative, was enough to reduce annual growth from minus 0.9 percent to minus 2.2 percent. Even so, annualised growth over the last three months was still positive at 1.4 percent. M4 lending was flat, the first month that it has not expanded since last September but leaving a still solid 2.6 percent 3-monthly annualised rate.

Excluding intermediate other financial institutions, M4 was also unchanged versus December while similarly-adjusted lending contracted 0.2 percent.

Elsewhere the financial data were again mixed. In the housing market, mortgage approvals climbed from 51,506 to 55,227 but mortgage lending fell a further £1.09 billion. Net lending to individuals picked up from £0.4 billion to £0.8 billion while overall consumer credit rose £1.877 billion after a £1.257 billion advance.

In sum, the financial data probably remain in line with at least a stabilisation in overall economic activity if not some improvement. As such, today's report should bolster the case of those BoE MPC members arguing against any cut in Bank Rate next month.

Definition

M4 is the Bank of England's main broad measure of money supply. There is no target for M4 and in practice the central bank tends to follow an adjusted measure that excludes intermediate other financial corporations in order to get a handle on current underlying trends. The M4 private sector lending counterpart is the most closely watched aspect of the report.

Description

M4 is similar to the M3 measure used in some other countries. M4 includes everything in M2 (also called the retail component of M4) plus other deposits with an original maturity of up to five years; other claims on financial institutions such as repos and bank acceptances; debt instruments issued by financial institutions including commercial paper and bonds with a maturity of up to five years. Understanding the role of money in the economy has always been an important issue for policymakers. And the pickup in broad money growth and decline in credit spreads over the past three years together with more recent financial market turbulence has made it a particularly pertinent issue. Monetary data can potentially provide important corroborative or incremental information about the outlook for inflation. Quantitative easing is essentially a policy aimed at boosting money supply.
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