Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
---|---|---|---|
CPI - M/M | -0.7% | 0.4% | |
CPI - Y/Y | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
Core CPI - M/M | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
Core CPI - Y/Y | 3.1% | 3.3% |
Highlights
Steady core inflation in January reflects offsetting moves across major categories. Electricity and gas prices rose 5.3 percent on the year after a previous increase of 1.3 percent, while the year-over-year increase in retail and other goods prices picked up from 1.1 percent to 1.4 percent. Weaker price increases were recorded for services, up 3.3 percent on the year after increasing 3.9 percent previously, while food price inflation moderated from 3.7 percent to 3.3 percent. The year-over-year increase in private transport prices also slowed from 5.0 percent to 2.9 percent.
Definition
The CPI is rebased once every five years to reflect the latest consumption patterns and composition of goods and services consumed by resident households. The weighting pattern for the 2014-based CPI was derived from the expenditure values collected in the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) which was conducted from October 2012 to September 2013. These expenditure values were updated to 2014 values by taking into account price changes between 2012/13 and 2014.
The CPI covers only consumption expenditure incurred by resident households. It excludes non-consumption expenditures such as loan repayments, income taxes, purchases of houses, shares, and other financial assets etc.
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from mortgages and auto loans to government securities. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.