ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.0%0.1%-0.1%0.0%
Year over Year0.7%0.7%0.7%0.6%

Highlights

Quarterly economic growth was revised marginally firmer at the end of last year. A 0.1 percent rise in total output was a tick stronger than originally reported and up from a flat reading in the previous period. Annual growth was unchanged at 0.7 percent after 0.6 percent in the third quarter.

Final domestic demand subtracted 0.1 percentage point from the overall quarterly change and largely reflected a 0.9 percent fall in gross fixed capital formation. Within this, business investment declined 0.9 percent and housing 1.4 percent. Elsewhere, government consumption was up 0.3 percent, but business inventories subtracted fully 0.7 percent.

Growth would have been negative but for net foreign trade which added 0.9 percentage points as exports stagnated and imports decreased fully 2.3 percent.

The revised data offer little new and leave a subdued picture of the French economy. A second successive drop in inventories may make for a slightly improved outlook for growth this quarter but the weakness of household spending remains a major problem. That said, today's updates put the French RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 19, both measures showing a moderate degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

GDP is seen unrevised, leaving a flat quarterly performance and annual growth of 0.7 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Following the release of the flash estimate about four weeks earlier, the second report incorporates additional data to provide a more accurate reading. This is also revised in the final report, published in the third month after the reference quarter.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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