Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
Highlights
Final domestic demand subtracted 0.1 percentage point from the overall quarterly change and largely reflected a 0.9 percent fall in gross fixed capital formation. Within this, business investment declined 0.9 percent and housing 1.4 percent. Elsewhere, government consumption was up 0.3 percent, but business inventories subtracted fully 0.7 percent.
Growth would have been negative but for net foreign trade which added 0.9 percentage points as exports stagnated and imports decreased fully 2.3 percent.
The revised data offer little new and leave a subdued picture of the French economy. A second successive drop in inventories may make for a slightly improved outlook for growth this quarter but the weakness of household spending remains a major problem. That said, today's updates put the French RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 19, both measures showing a moderate degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.