ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.8%0.8%-0.2%
Year over Year2.8%2.9%3.1%
HICP - M/M0.9%-0.2%
HICP - Y/Y3.1%3.4%

Highlights

Consumer prices moved much as expected in mid-quarter. A provisional 0.8 percent rise on the month matched the market consensus and, with base effects negative, was small enough to trim the yearly inflation rate from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent, just a tick higher than expected. The annual reading now matches its lowest level since December 2021.

The flash HICP rose a monthly 0.9 percent, trimming its yearly rate from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent.

The deceleration in the annual CPI rate reflected falling inflation in manufactured products (0.3 percent after 0.7 percent), services (3.1 percent after 3.2 percent) and, in particular, food (3.6 percent after 5.7 percent). Energy (4.4 percent after 1.9 percent) provided a boost. Consequently, core inflation (3.0 percent in January) may have eased a little.

The slowdown in French HICP inflation in mid-quarter bodes well for another decline in the overall Eurozone rate (data due tomorrow). More generally, today's updates put the French RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 19, both measures showing a moderate degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consumer price inflation in February is expected to slow to 2.8 percent versus January's 3.1 percent annual rate.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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