Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.2% |
Year over Year | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
HICP - M/M | 0.9% | -0.2% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 3.1% | 3.4% |
Highlights
The flash HICP rose a monthly 0.9 percent, trimming its yearly rate from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent.
The deceleration in the annual CPI rate reflected falling inflation in manufactured products (0.3 percent after 0.7 percent), services (3.1 percent after 3.2 percent) and, in particular, food (3.6 percent after 5.7 percent). Energy (4.4 percent after 1.9 percent) provided a boost. Consequently, core inflation (3.0 percent in January) may have eased a little.
The slowdown in French HICP inflation in mid-quarter bodes well for another decline in the overall Eurozone rate (data due tomorrow). More generally, today's updates put the French RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 19, both measures showing a moderate degree of overall economic outperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.