Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
Year over Year | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
Highlights
The final HICP also matched its flash outturn and so similarly still shows a 0.2 percent drop versus December, trimming its yearly rate from 4.1 percent to 3.4 percent, now 1.4 percentage points above the ECB's target.
Some of the slide in the annual CPI rate was attributable to energy, where inflation dropped from 5.7 percent to 1.9 percent, and food, where the rate declined 1.5 percentage points to 5.7 percent. The fall in energy also helped to halve the rate in overall manufactured goods to 0.7 percent but services edged a tick higher to 3.2 percent. Even so, the core rate still decreased from 3.4 percent to 3.0 percent, its lowest mark since March 2022.
Today's update suggests that underlying inflationary pressures in France are continuing to ease, in line with soft domestic demand. More generally, the final January data put the French RPI at 29 and the RPI-P at 20, both measures indicating recent overall economic activity running quite well ahead of forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.