ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
Year over Year3.1%3.1%3.1%

Highlights

Consumer prices were unrevised in the final data for January. A 0.2 percent monthly fall was in line with the provisional estimate and steep enough to reduce the annual inflation rate from December's final 3.7 percent to 3.1 percent, its weakest print since January 2022.

The final HICP also matched its flash outturn and so similarly still shows a 0.2 percent drop versus December, trimming its yearly rate from 4.1 percent to 3.4 percent, now 1.4 percentage points above the ECB's target.

Some of the slide in the annual CPI rate was attributable to energy, where inflation dropped from 5.7 percent to 1.9 percent, and food, where the rate declined 1.5 percentage points to 5.7 percent. The fall in energy also helped to halve the rate in overall manufactured goods to 0.7 percent but services edged a tick higher to 3.2 percent. Even so, the core rate still decreased from 3.4 percent to 3.0 percent, its lowest mark since March 2022.

Today's update suggests that underlying inflationary pressures in France are continuing to ease, in line with soft domestic demand. More generally, the final January data put the French RPI at 29 and the RPI-P at 20, both measures indicating recent overall economic activity running quite well ahead of forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consumer prices are not expected to be revised in the final report leaving a 0.2 percent monthly drop and a 3.1 percent yearly inflation rate, down from December's final 3.7 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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