| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% |
Highlights
The labour market was surprisingly weak at the end of last year. At 7.3 percent, the mainland jobless rate was up a tick versus its third quarter reading and fully 0.3 percentage points above the market consensus. This was its third straight increase and the highest since the third quarter of 2021.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose 29,000 to 2.33 million. This was the fourth increase in as many quarters but small enough to hold the rate at the third quarter's upwardly revised 7.5 percent. The latest print was 0.4 percentage points above the recent low seen at the start of 2023. At the same time, the overall employment rate edged a tick firmer to 68.4 percent but this failed to reverse a 0.2 percentage point drop recorded in the previous period.
In sum, a disappointingly soft report is consistent with the weakness shown in many of the other recent indicators, the real economy having flatlined in both the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Even so, today's update puts the French RPI at 32 and the RPI-P at 21. Both measures show economic activity in general continuing to run quite well ahead of market expectations.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose 29,000 to 2.33 million. This was the fourth increase in as many quarters but small enough to hold the rate at the third quarter's upwardly revised 7.5 percent. The latest print was 0.4 percentage points above the recent low seen at the start of 2023. At the same time, the overall employment rate edged a tick firmer to 68.4 percent but this failed to reverse a 0.2 percentage point drop recorded in the previous period.
In sum, a disappointingly soft report is consistent with the weakness shown in many of the other recent indicators, the real economy having flatlined in both the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Even so, today's update puts the French RPI at 32 and the RPI-P at 21. Both measures show economic activity in general continuing to run quite well ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Joblessness on the mainland is seen falling from 7.2 percent to 7.0 percent.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.
Description
The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
