| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | $-88.1B | $-90.0B to $-86.0B | $-90.2B | $-88.5B | $-87.9B |
| Imports - M/M | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 0.2% | 2.5% |
Highlights
The US goods deficit widened to $90.2 billion in January from $87.9 billion in December as a 1.1 percent import gain far outpaced a 0.2 percent export increase.
Details showed a rebound in trade activity in the auto sector and, to a lesser extent, capital goods.
Four of six import categories expanded in January, offsetting declines of 2.7 percent in industrial supplies and 1.9 percent in consumer goods. Leading the advance was a 5.1 percent rebound in auto imports, which were down 1.0 percent in December. Capital goods rose 4.2 percent, erasing December's 0.6 percent retreat."Other goods" rose 3.4 percent and foods, feeds and beverages were up 0.6 percent.
On the export front, a 10.7 percent rebound in autos following a 3.3 percent drop the previous month helped offset decreases of 5.5 percent in"other goods", 2.7 percent in industrial supplies and 2.1 percent in foods, feeds and beverages. Also bringing support were gains of 3.2 percent in consumer goods and 1.4 percent in capital goods, which were down 0.4 percent in December.
Details showed a rebound in trade activity in the auto sector and, to a lesser extent, capital goods.
Four of six import categories expanded in January, offsetting declines of 2.7 percent in industrial supplies and 1.9 percent in consumer goods. Leading the advance was a 5.1 percent rebound in auto imports, which were down 1.0 percent in December. Capital goods rose 4.2 percent, erasing December's 0.6 percent retreat."Other goods" rose 3.4 percent and foods, feeds and beverages were up 0.6 percent.
On the export front, a 10.7 percent rebound in autos following a 3.3 percent drop the previous month helped offset decreases of 5.5 percent in"other goods", 2.7 percent in industrial supplies and 2.1 percent in foods, feeds and beverages. Also bringing support were gains of 3.2 percent in consumer goods and 1.4 percent in capital goods, which were down 0.4 percent in December.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to deepen by $0.2 billion to $88.1 billion in January after deepening by $0.4 billion in December to $87.9 billion.
Definition
This monthly report offers advance import and export data on the goods components of the monthly trade report. Goods make up roughly two-thirds of the nation's exports and roughly three-quarters of imports.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Description
Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance), are valuable gauges of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
