Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.4% | -0.4% to 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
Highlights
Durable orders were unchanged in December (and unchanged from last week's advance estimate), while nondurable orders, the new data in today's report, rose 0.4 percent (details on nondurables are not yet available).
Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) rose 0.2 percent in a gain trimmed a tenth from the advance estimate. This reading has been flat on net in recent months though November's 0.9 percent jump is an exception that was, however, largely offset by October's 0.6 percent decline.
Commercial aircraft orders were comparatively steady in December at a 0.4 percent gain following an 84.1 percent surge and 43.9 percent drop in the two prior months. Unfilled orders for commercial aircraft have been climbing sharply in a build, however, that is problematic given the prospect of cancellations following Boeing's latest quality troubles.
Fed by aircraft, total unfilled orders jumped 1.3 percent for a second month while inventories held little changed, up 0.1 percent in December. Total shipments were unchanged.
Much of the recent US economic data -- with the major exception of this morning's unexpectedly strong employment report -- have been coming in near or just below Econoday's consensus, reflected in the Relative Performance Index which is holding near the breakeven zero line, at plus 2 overall and plus 4 when excluding inflation data. Readings near zero imply no change in monetary policy.