Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 210K | 201K to 215K | 215K | 201K | 202K |
Initial Claims - Change | 13K | -12K | -11K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 212.50K | 215.25K | 215.50K |
Highlights
Continuing claims in lagging data for the February 17 week rose 45,000 to 1.905 million lifting this 4-week average by nearly 2,000 to 1.880 million which is up nearly 50,000 from mid-January. The unemployment rate for insured workers edged back higher to a still low 1.3 percent.
Though the trend for initial claims, despite the week's rise, remains steady and low, continuing claims have been edging higher. Nevertheless, US claims data are consistent with a tight labor market in which an imbalance between labor supply and labor demand continues to be felt.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.