ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level210K201K to 215K215K201K202K
Initial Claims - Change13K-12K-11K
4-Week Moving Average212.50K215.25K215.50K

Highlights

Initial jobless claims moved back higher in the February 24 week, to 215,000 and up 13,000 that follows three straight declines. Given the prior declines, the rise in the latest week wasn't enough to keep the 4-week average from falling 3,000 to 212,500.

Continuing claims in lagging data for the February 17 week rose 45,000 to 1.905 million lifting this 4-week average by nearly 2,000 to 1.880 million which is up nearly 50,000 from mid-January. The unemployment rate for insured workers edged back higher to a still low 1.3 percent.

Though the trend for initial claims, despite the week's rise, remains steady and low, continuing claims have been edging higher. Nevertheless, US claims data are consistent with a tight labor market in which an imbalance between labor supply and labor demand continues to be felt.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Jobless claims for the February 24 week are expected to rise back to 210,000 from 201,000 in the prior week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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