Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 214K | 205K to 220K | 224K | 214K | 215K |
Initial Claims - Change | 9K | 25K | 26K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 207.75K | 202.25K | 202.50K |
Highlights
Insured jobless claims are up 70,000 to 1.898 million in the January 20 week, an increase fairly typical of mid-January when the unemployment rolls normally swell with layoffs of seasonal workers and as businesses adjust payrolls usually to cuts costs -- in preparation for a new year. The insured rate of unemployment is up a tenth to 1.3 percent in the January 20 week. The increase in the unemployment rate is small but could be a signal of a little more easing in the supply of labor.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.