| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
Highlights
Japanese payrolls posted an 18th straight rise on year amid lingering labor shortages at communications firms, hotels, restaurants and factories, while the unemployment rate fell to a nearly four-year low of 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent (revised up from 2.4 percent) in December. The seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in January was as expected and is the lowest since 2.4 percent in February 2020.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired dropped sharply for the second month in a row and the number of those who quit to look for other openings dipped after being flat, more than offsetting a rise in the number of those who began looking for work and thus were counted as being unemployed. The number of employed men rebounded while that of women fell sharply.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at minus 1, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing largely as expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at minus 13.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 250,000 to an unadjusted 67.14 million in January for the 18th straight increase, led by women and both regular and non-regular jobs, as seen in recent months.
The number of unemployed fell 10,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.63 million in January after falling 20,000 in December. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020. December's 1.56 million was the lowest since 1.46 million in December 2019.
The overall employment increase in January from a year earlier was led by a surge in job creation at information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers. The hotels, restaurants and bars category also continued hiring more people to fill vacancies while the number of workers in the manufacturing industry rose for a third straight month but at a slower pace.
Employment in the real-estate and goods leasing category showed a solid gain after rising sharply at the end of the year. There was a pullback in jobs in the medical and welfare category after two months of increase.
On the downside, financial firms cut payrolls from year-earlier levels for the eighth consecutive month. Employment in the wholesale and retail industry fell for the third straight month. The construction industry trimmed jobs slightly on the year in January after adding more in December and shedding in November.
Compared to the previous month, the number of people who lost their jobs or retired dropped sharply for the second month in a row and the number of those who quit to look for other openings dipped after being flat, more than offsetting a rise in the number of those who began looking for work and thus were counted as being unemployed. The number of employed men rebounded while that of women fell sharply.
Econoday's Relative Performance Index stood at minus 1, just below zero, which indicates the Japanese economy is performing largely as expected. Excluding the impact of inflation, the RPI was at minus 13.
Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed rose 250,000 to an unadjusted 67.14 million in January for the 18th straight increase, led by women and both regular and non-regular jobs, as seen in recent months.
The number of unemployed fell 10,000 on the year to an unadjusted 1.63 million in January after falling 20,000 in December. It has drifted down from a pandemic peak of 2.17 million in October 2020. December's 1.56 million was the lowest since 1.46 million in December 2019.
The overall employment increase in January from a year earlier was led by a surge in job creation at information communications firms including news media, mobile phone carriers and software developers. The hotels, restaurants and bars category also continued hiring more people to fill vacancies while the number of workers in the manufacturing industry rose for a third straight month but at a slower pace.
Employment in the real-estate and goods leasing category showed a solid gain after rising sharply at the end of the year. There was a pullback in jobs in the medical and welfare category after two months of increase.
On the downside, financial firms cut payrolls from year-earlier levels for the eighth consecutive month. Employment in the wholesale and retail industry fell for the third straight month. The construction industry trimmed jobs slightly on the year in January after adding more in December and shedding in November.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 18th straight rise on year in January, reflecting widespread labor shortages at factories, hotels and restaurants among others. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4 percent, unchanged from December, when it fell to an 11-month low from 2.5 percent seen in the previous two months. People are quitting to look for better openings and finding a new job fairly soon, keeping the jobless rate relatively low.
In its monthly economic report for February released last week, the Japanese government downgraded its overall assessment for the first time in three months, saying while the economy is recovering moderately, consumption has turned weaker amid elevated costs and production has been hit by suspended vehicle output. But it kept its view on employment conditions that they are"showing signs of improvement."
In its monthly economic report for February released last week, the Japanese government downgraded its overall assessment for the first time in three months, saying while the economy is recovering moderately, consumption has turned weaker amid elevated costs and production has been hit by suspended vehicle output. But it kept its view on employment conditions that they are"showing signs of improvement."
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
