Highlights
In Europe, economic conditions continue to have a weak tone.
Fourth-quarter GDP in France is expected to decrease a quarterly 0.1 percent for another quarter of flat results following a slight 0.1 percent rise in the third quarter.
French consumption of manufactured goods by consumers is seen rising 0.2 percent on the month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator for January is expected to climb to 98.2 from 97.8 in December.
In Germany, the flash estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is quarter-over-quarter contraction of 0.3 percent and year-over-year contraction of 0.2 percent. This would compare with respective third-quarter contraction of 0.1 and 0.4 percent. German GDP has been essentially flat since fourth-quarter 2022.
Italy's GDP for the October-December period is expected to be unchanged on the quarter but rise 0.3 percent on the year following 0.1 percent growth both on quarter and year in July-September.
The economic sentiment index compiled by the European Commission is forecast at 96.3 in January, little changed from December's surprisingly strong 2.4-point jump to 96.4, which, in a report showing broad gains, was the strongest showing since April last year.
The Eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to contract a quarterly 0.1 percent, leaving total output unchanged from a year earlier. Both readings would match their respective final posts in the previous quarter.
Among US data, the Case-Shiller home price index for the adjusted 20-city monthly rate is seen rising 0.4 percent on the month in November, slowing from increases of 0.6 percent in October and 0.7 percent in September, both as expected. By contrast, the annual rate of increase is expected to rise nearly a full percentage point to 5.8 percent from 4.9 percent.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to rise further in January, to a consensus 112.5 versus 110.7 in December, which was much higher than expected and up nearly 11 points from November. The top concern among consumers remained inflation in the December report, although they foresaw a lower possibility of a US recession.
The Labor Department's JOLTS report is forecast to show job openings fell 90,000 to 8.70 million in December from November's 8.790 million, which was just above Econoday's consensus but below October's 8.852 million.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound by a solid 2.5 percent on the month in December, led by semiconductor-producing equipment, after slipping 0.9 percent in November and rising 1.3 percent in October. From a year earlier, factory output is seen nearly flat, up just 0.1 percent, after falling 1.4 percent in the prior month. METI is expected to maintain its assessment that industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back."
The METI's survey of producers last month indicated that output was set to post a 3.2 percent rebound in December before slumping 7.2 percent in January. There is a downside risk to this outlook due to a shipment and production halt announced by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal after the survey was conducted.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 5.3 percent on year in December for the 22nd straight rise after a revised 5.4 percent increase in November, led by solid demand at department stores and for vehicles as well as higher fuels prices. Retail sales are seen down 0.5 percent on the month after rising a revised 1.1 percent previously. Markups by food and beverage suppliers have peaked but still support overall sales values. Spending by foreign visitors at department stores have recovered to pre-Covid levels.
The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions expressed at its Jan. 22-23 meeting at which the nine-member board voted unanimously, as expected, to maintain its seven-year-old yield curve control framework and retain its guidance that it will"patiently continue with monetary easing" in order to"achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases." Members likely continued discussing when they could see clearer signs of substantial wage hikes for fiscal 2024 staring in April.
Inflation in Australia is expected to moderate further to 0.8 percent on quarter in the October-December period from 1.2 percent in July-September and to 4.3 percent on year from 5.4 percent. The monthly CPI data is also expected to show a notable slowdown to an annual 3.6 percent in December from 4.3 percent in November.
China's economy is struggling to recover from the wight of property market problems. The CFLP manufacturing PMI is expected to increase slightly to 49.3 in January from December's 49.0, which was lower than expected and down from November's 49.4. The non-manufacturing PMI, which in December was flat at an as-expected 50.4, is expected to be little changed at 50.5.
Fourth-quarter GDP in France is expected to decrease a quarterly 0.1 percent for another quarter of flat results following a slight 0.1 percent rise in the third quarter.
French consumption of manufactured goods by consumers is seen rising 0.2 percent on the month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator for January is expected to climb to 98.2 from 97.8 in December.
In Germany, the flash estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is quarter-over-quarter contraction of 0.3 percent and year-over-year contraction of 0.2 percent. This would compare with respective third-quarter contraction of 0.1 and 0.4 percent. German GDP has been essentially flat since fourth-quarter 2022.
Italy's GDP for the October-December period is expected to be unchanged on the quarter but rise 0.3 percent on the year following 0.1 percent growth both on quarter and year in July-September.
The economic sentiment index compiled by the European Commission is forecast at 96.3 in January, little changed from December's surprisingly strong 2.4-point jump to 96.4, which, in a report showing broad gains, was the strongest showing since April last year.
The Eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to contract a quarterly 0.1 percent, leaving total output unchanged from a year earlier. Both readings would match their respective final posts in the previous quarter.
Among US data, the Case-Shiller home price index for the adjusted 20-city monthly rate is seen rising 0.4 percent on the month in November, slowing from increases of 0.6 percent in October and 0.7 percent in September, both as expected. By contrast, the annual rate of increase is expected to rise nearly a full percentage point to 5.8 percent from 4.9 percent.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to rise further in January, to a consensus 112.5 versus 110.7 in December, which was much higher than expected and up nearly 11 points from November. The top concern among consumers remained inflation in the December report, although they foresaw a lower possibility of a US recession.
The Labor Department's JOLTS report is forecast to show job openings fell 90,000 to 8.70 million in December from November's 8.790 million, which was just above Econoday's consensus but below October's 8.852 million.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rebound by a solid 2.5 percent on the month in December, led by semiconductor-producing equipment, after slipping 0.9 percent in November and rising 1.3 percent in October. From a year earlier, factory output is seen nearly flat, up just 0.1 percent, after falling 1.4 percent in the prior month. METI is expected to maintain its assessment that industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back."
The METI's survey of producers last month indicated that output was set to post a 3.2 percent rebound in December before slumping 7.2 percent in January. There is a downside risk to this outlook due to a shipment and production halt announced by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal after the survey was conducted.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 5.3 percent on year in December for the 22nd straight rise after a revised 5.4 percent increase in November, led by solid demand at department stores and for vehicles as well as higher fuels prices. Retail sales are seen down 0.5 percent on the month after rising a revised 1.1 percent previously. Markups by food and beverage suppliers have peaked but still support overall sales values. Spending by foreign visitors at department stores have recovered to pre-Covid levels.
The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions expressed at its Jan. 22-23 meeting at which the nine-member board voted unanimously, as expected, to maintain its seven-year-old yield curve control framework and retain its guidance that it will"patiently continue with monetary easing" in order to"achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases." Members likely continued discussing when they could see clearer signs of substantial wage hikes for fiscal 2024 staring in April.
Inflation in Australia is expected to moderate further to 0.8 percent on quarter in the October-December period from 1.2 percent in July-September and to 4.3 percent on year from 5.4 percent. The monthly CPI data is also expected to show a notable slowdown to an annual 3.6 percent in December from 4.3 percent in November.
China's economy is struggling to recover from the wight of property market problems. The CFLP manufacturing PMI is expected to increase slightly to 49.3 in January from December's 49.0, which was lower than expected and down from November's 49.4. The non-manufacturing PMI, which in December was flat at an as-expected 50.4, is expected to be little changed at 50.5.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
