Highlights
The French INSEE business climate indicator is forecast to hold steady at 100 in January after December's 1-point increase.
Germany's Ifo business climate index is expected tor rebound slightly to 86.7 in January after falling unexpectedly to 86.4 in December and rising to 87.2 in November from 86.9 in October.
The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady, leaving the policy rate at 4.50 percent, despite improvement in inflation and weakness in economic activity. The question for policy watchers is when the bank expects to bring down rates.
US durable goods orders are forecast to rise 1.0 percent on the month in December following November's 5.4 percent increase and October's 5.1 percent decrease that both reflected swings in aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders are seen up 0.2 percent in December, with core capital goods orders, after November's 0.8 percent jump, falling back 0.2 percent.
Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to slow to 2.0 percent annualized growth versus third-quarter growth of 4.9 percent. Personal consumption expenditures, after the third quarter's 3.1 percent rate, are expected to rise 2.5 percent.
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow by $0.8 billion to $88.5 billion in December after narrowing by $0.3 billion in November to $89.3 billion.
New jobless claims for the January 20 week are expected to rise back to 200,000 versus 187,000 in the prior week, which was well below the consensus and the lowest since the September 24 week of 2022.
Wholesale inventories are expected to decrease 0.2 percent in the advance report for December that would match November's draw.
New home sales have been swinging sharply from month to month. After November's lower-than-expected 590,000 annual rate, December's consensus is a sharp rebound to 650,000.
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to ease further in January in all three key measures as food and beverage suppliers have largely passed high import costs onto customers and utility subsides continue to depress overall energy costs. The core CPI (excluding fresh food) is expected to post a 19-month low of a 1.9 percent rise on year, slowing from 2.1 percent in December. The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is also seen falling to a 21-month low of 2.0 percent from 2.4 percent. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) annual rate is expected to ease to a nine-month low of 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.
Germany's Ifo business climate index is expected tor rebound slightly to 86.7 in January after falling unexpectedly to 86.4 in December and rising to 87.2 in November from 86.9 in October.
The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady, leaving the policy rate at 4.50 percent, despite improvement in inflation and weakness in economic activity. The question for policy watchers is when the bank expects to bring down rates.
US durable goods orders are forecast to rise 1.0 percent on the month in December following November's 5.4 percent increase and October's 5.1 percent decrease that both reflected swings in aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders are seen up 0.2 percent in December, with core capital goods orders, after November's 0.8 percent jump, falling back 0.2 percent.
Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to slow to 2.0 percent annualized growth versus third-quarter growth of 4.9 percent. Personal consumption expenditures, after the third quarter's 3.1 percent rate, are expected to rise 2.5 percent.
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow by $0.8 billion to $88.5 billion in December after narrowing by $0.3 billion in November to $89.3 billion.
New jobless claims for the January 20 week are expected to rise back to 200,000 versus 187,000 in the prior week, which was well below the consensus and the lowest since the September 24 week of 2022.
Wholesale inventories are expected to decrease 0.2 percent in the advance report for December that would match November's draw.
New home sales have been swinging sharply from month to month. After November's lower-than-expected 590,000 annual rate, December's consensus is a sharp rebound to 650,000.
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to ease further in January in all three key measures as food and beverage suppliers have largely passed high import costs onto customers and utility subsides continue to depress overall energy costs. The core CPI (excluding fresh food) is expected to post a 19-month low of a 1.9 percent rise on year, slowing from 2.1 percent in December. The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is also seen falling to a 21-month low of 2.0 percent from 2.4 percent. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) annual rate is expected to ease to a nine-month low of 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
