The CBI's first industrial trends survey of 2024 suggests manufacturing started 2024 in much the same depressed vein as it ended 2023. At minus 30 percent, the headline orders balance was down from December's minus 23 percent, some 7 percentage points short of the market consensus and even further below its long-run average (minus 13 percent). In fact, this is the second worst outturn since the Covid lockdown in January 2021.

The latest update pushes both the UK RPI (minus 2) and RPI-P (minus 13) back below zero although for now, neither reading indicates a significant degree of underperformance by economic activity in general. The report will do little to bolster the likelihood of a cut in Bank Rate next month.

The headline orders balance is expected to remain steady at a lowly minus 23 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly