| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Year over Year | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Highlights
Retail sales beat expectations again in November with a 0.4 percent monthly gain that matched the October rise and was double the market consensus. This made for the first back-to-back increase since August/September last year and with base effects strongly positive, unadjusted annual growth climbed from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent.
Volumes were weaker but a 0.2 percent monthly rise left sales matching their highest level since July. Purchases of food fell 0.2 percent but this was more than offset by a 0.4 percent increase in non-food demand. On the year, overall unadjusted sales were down 2.2 percent having fallen 3.9 percent last time.
Today's update puts average total volume sales in October/November just 0.1 percent below their mean level in the third quarter. This raises the possibility of a positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. The Italian RPI now stands at 14 and the ECDI-P at 30, both readings showing recent economic activity in general running somewhat ahead of forecasters' predictions.
Volumes were weaker but a 0.2 percent monthly rise left sales matching their highest level since July. Purchases of food fell 0.2 percent but this was more than offset by a 0.4 percent increase in non-food demand. On the year, overall unadjusted sales were down 2.2 percent having fallen 3.9 percent last time.
Today's update puts average total volume sales in October/November just 0.1 percent below their mean level in the third quarter. This raises the possibility of a positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. The Italian RPI now stands at 14 and the ECDI-P at 30, both readings showing recent economic activity in general running somewhat ahead of forecasters' predictions.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales are expected to have risen 0.2 percent versus October when they easily beat expectations with a 0.4 percent monthly advance.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
