| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.52% | 0.87% | |
| Year over Year | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 6.8 percent on the year in December after an increase of 6.6 percent in November, just above the consensus forecast for an increase of 6.6 percent. Output rose 0.52 percent on the month after increasing 0.87 percent previously.
In addition to monthly data for December and the quarterly GDP data published today, officials also published annual data, which they characterised in the accompanying statement as evidence of steady improvement in the economy's"momentum of recovery". Officials will announce growth and inflation forecasts for 2024 at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in March, but today's statement suggests officials remain comfortable with current policy settings for now, despite ongoing weakness in the property market.
Today's GDP and monthly activity data were broadly in line with consensus forecasts, except for retail sales, which were somewhat weaker than expected. The China RPI rose from minus 14 to zero and the RPI-P rose from minus 10 to plus 10, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
In addition to monthly data for December and the quarterly GDP data published today, officials also published annual data, which they characterised in the accompanying statement as evidence of steady improvement in the economy's"momentum of recovery". Officials will announce growth and inflation forecasts for 2024 at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in March, but today's statement suggests officials remain comfortable with current policy settings for now, despite ongoing weakness in the property market.
Today's GDP and monthly activity data were broadly in line with consensus forecasts, except for retail sales, which were somewhat weaker than expected. The China RPI rose from minus 14 to zero and the RPI-P rose from minus 10 to plus 10, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Year-over-year growth in industrial production is expected to hold steady in December at November's 6.6 percent rate which was nearly a percentage point above the consensus.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
