The quarterly USDA grain stocks report showed US all wheat stocks on December 1 at 1.410 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.391 billion and a range of expectations from 1.272 to 1.466 billion. This was up from 1.312 billion a year ago. US winter wheat seedings for 2024 came in at 34.425 million acres versus 35.7 million expected (range 34.5-39.4 million). This is down from 36.699 million in 2023. Hard red winter wheat seedings came in at 24.0 million acres versus 25.2 million expected (range 24.0-27.3 million) and 25.7 million in 2023. Soft red winter wheat came in at 6.86 million acres versus 7.0 million expected (range 6.2-8.6 million) and 7.4 million in 2023. White winter wheat came in at 3.54 million acres versus 3.6 million expected (range 3.4-3.8 million) and 3.6 million in 2023. US wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 came in at 648 million bushels versus 659 million expected (range 630-681 million) and 659 million in the December report. World ending stocks came in at 260.03 million tonnes versus 258.2 million expected (range 256-261.1 million) and 258.20 million in December.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Although grain stocks came in a little bit above the average guess, all winter wheat seedings were lowered by a surprising 700,000 acres and were nearly 2.2 million acres below 2023. Most of the decline was in HRW, which fell 1.2 million acres from expectations and were down 2.7 million from 2023. The global outlook featured larger consumption and higher ending stocks than last month. Although winter wheat acreage was below the guesses and US ending stocks were slightly lower than expectations, there was nothing in the report that would encourage aggressive bull positioning, especially with bearish action in wheat and corn today. Further weakness in the other grains could pull Chicago March wheat down toward the contract lows, just under 5.60.

This report includes data on the annual seeded acreage of winter wheat, durum wheat, and canola seedlings. Data is presented on a national basis and on a state by state basis with historical context given for the current year's seeded acreage.

This report provides plantings estimates for winter crops, namely winter wheat, Durum and canola. This is a key component in determining production for the year. The data is based on surveys collected from growers during the first two weeks of December. The USDA will use it in their monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) projections for the coming year’s production.