| U.S. Grain Stocks (1000 Bushels) | ||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | |||||
| On Farms | Off Farms | Total | On Farms | Off Farms | Total | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 4,079,000 | 3,678,036 | 7,757,036 | 4,105,000 | 3,291,403 | 7,396,403 |
| Jun 1 | 2,120,700 | 2,228,268 | 4,348,968 | 2,216,800 | 1,886,509 | 4,103,309 |
| Sep 1 | 509,500 | 867,390 | 1,376,890 | 604,400 | 755,801 | 1,360,201 |
| Dec 1 | 6,740,000 | 4,073,207 | 10,813,207 | 7,830,000 | 4,338,869 | 12,168,869 |
| All Wheat | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 174,410 | 854,758 | 1,029,168 | 227,485 | 713,733 | 941,218 |
| Jun 1 | 92,965 | 581,466 | 674,431 | 124,420 | 445,148 | 569,568 |
| Sep 1 | 591,130 | 1,185,709 | 1,776,839 | 598,140 | 1,168,981 | 1,767,121 |
| Dec 1 | 361,900 | 949,930 | 1,311,830 | 394,960 | 1,015,294 | 1,410,254 |
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 750,000 | 1,181,817 | 1,931,817 | 749,500 | 937,132 | 1,686,632 |
| Jun 1 | 331,400 | 636,125 | 967,525 | 322,800 | 473,588 | 796,388 |
| Sep 1 | 62,930 | 211,464 | 274,394 | 72,000 | 192,184 | 264,184 |
| Dec 1 | 1,477,000 | 1,544,152 | 3,021,152 | 1,453,000 | 1,546,949 | 2,999,949 |
| USDA December 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks Pre-Report Estimates | ||||
| Estimates | ||||
| Hightower | Low | High | Last Year | |
| Corn | 12,010 | 11,070 | 12,380 | 10,821 |
| Soybeans | 2,982 | 2,950 | 3,039 | 3,021 |
| Wheat | 1,383 | 1,272 | 1,459 | 1,312 |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
US soybean stocks on December 1 came in at 3.0 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 2.976 billion and a range of expectations from 2.90 to 3.039 billion. This was down 3.021 billion on December 1, 2022. US 2023/24 soybean ending stocks came in at 280 million bushels versus 242 million expected (range 215-314 million) and 245 million in December. Production came in at 4.165 billion bushels versus 4.122 billion expected (range 4.074-4.173 billion) and up from 4.129 billion in December. Yield came in at 50.6 bushels/acre versus 49.8 expected and 49.9 in December. Harvested area came in at 82.4 million acres versus 82.8 million expected and 82.8 million in million in December. World 2023/24 ending stocks came in at 114.6 million tonnes versus 112.2 million expected (range 110.0-116.2 million) and 114.2 million in December. Brazilian production was 157.0 million tonnes versus 156.7 million expected (range 152.8-160.0 million) and 161 million in December. Argentine production came in at 50 million tonnes versus 48.7 million expected (range 48-50 million) and 48 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: With US soybean stocks, yield, final production, and ending stocks all coming in above expectations, the report cast a bearish tone over the market. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month. Soybean exports and crush were left unchanged. Harvested acres were reduced slightly but the bump up in yield offset that. World ending stocks were above guesses as well, and Brazilian and Argentine production came in near expectations, although the Argentine number was at the high end of the guesses. This report featured little for the bull camp to grab onto, and prices look headed to long term support at 12.00 at least.
CORN:
US corn stocks on December 1 came in at 12.169 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 12.013 billion and a range of expectations from 11.07 to 12.250 billion. This was down from 10.821 billion on December 1, 2022. US 2023/24 corn ending stocks came in at 2.162 billion bushels versus 2.094 billion expected (range 1.961-2.253 billion) and up from 2.131 billion in December. Production came in at 15.342 billion bushels versus 15.212 billion expected (range 15.068-15.364 billion) and 15.234 billion in December. Yield came in at 177.3 bushels/acre versus 174.7 expected and 174.9 in December. Harvested area came in at 86.5 million acres versus 87.3 million expected and 87.1 in December. World ending stocks came in at 325.2 million tonnes versus 313.8 million expected (range 309.5-318.0 million) and 315.2 million in December. Brazilian production came in at 127 million tonnes versus 126.5 million expected (range 122.0-129.0) and 129 million in December. Argentine production came in at 55 million tonnes versus 54.8 million expected and unchanged from December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: US grain stocks were above guesses, as were the US ending stocks numbers, and although harvested acres were cut slightly, a significant increase in 2023 corn yield of 2.4 bushels per acre was a bearish surprise. World ending stocks were well above the highest guesses on an increase in Chinese stocks, which adds to the bearishness of the report. South American production was near expectations. US ending stocks would have been more bearish after the significant jump in yield, but they were offset to some degree by increases in ethanol and feed/residual usage. The report was a clear disappointment for the bull camp.
WHEAT:
The quarterly USDA grain stocks report showed US all wheat stocks on December 1 at 1.410 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.391 billion and a range of expectations from 1.272 to 1.466 billion. This was up from 1.312 billion a year ago. US winter wheat seedings for 2024 came in at 34.425 million acres versus 35.7 million expected (range 34.5-39.4 million). This is down from 36.699 million in 2023. Hard red winter wheat seedings came in at 24.0 million acres versus 25.2 million expected (range 24.0-27.3 million) and 25.7 million in 2023. Soft red winter wheat came in at 6.86 million acres versus 7.0 million expected (range 6.2-8.6 million) and 7.4 million in 2023. White winter wheat came in at 3.54 million acres versus 3.6 million expected (range 3.4-3.8 million) and 3.6 million in 2023. US wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 came in at 648 million bushels versus 659 million expected (range 630-681 million) and 659 million in the December report. World ending stocks came in at 260.03 million tonnes versus 258.2 million expected (range 256-261.1 million) and 258.20 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Although grain stocks came in a little bit above the average guess, all winter wheat seedings were lowered by a surprising 700,000 acres and were nearly 2.2 million acres below 2023. Most of the decline was in HRW, which fell 1.2 million acres from expectations and were down 2.7 million from 2023. The global outlook featured larger consumption and higher ending stocks than last month. Although winter wheat acreage was below the guesses and US ending stocks were slightly lower than expectations, there was nothing in the report that would encourage aggressive bull positioning, especially with bearish action in wheat and corn today. Further weakness in the other grains could pull Chicago March wheat down toward the contract lows, just under 5.60.
US soybean stocks on December 1 came in at 3.0 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 2.976 billion and a range of expectations from 2.90 to 3.039 billion. This was down 3.021 billion on December 1, 2022. US 2023/24 soybean ending stocks came in at 280 million bushels versus 242 million expected (range 215-314 million) and 245 million in December. Production came in at 4.165 billion bushels versus 4.122 billion expected (range 4.074-4.173 billion) and up from 4.129 billion in December. Yield came in at 50.6 bushels/acre versus 49.8 expected and 49.9 in December. Harvested area came in at 82.4 million acres versus 82.8 million expected and 82.8 million in million in December. World 2023/24 ending stocks came in at 114.6 million tonnes versus 112.2 million expected (range 110.0-116.2 million) and 114.2 million in December. Brazilian production was 157.0 million tonnes versus 156.7 million expected (range 152.8-160.0 million) and 161 million in December. Argentine production came in at 50 million tonnes versus 48.7 million expected (range 48-50 million) and 48 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: With US soybean stocks, yield, final production, and ending stocks all coming in above expectations, the report cast a bearish tone over the market. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month. Soybean exports and crush were left unchanged. Harvested acres were reduced slightly but the bump up in yield offset that. World ending stocks were above guesses as well, and Brazilian and Argentine production came in near expectations, although the Argentine number was at the high end of the guesses. This report featured little for the bull camp to grab onto, and prices look headed to long term support at 12.00 at least.
CORN:
US corn stocks on December 1 came in at 12.169 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 12.013 billion and a range of expectations from 11.07 to 12.250 billion. This was down from 10.821 billion on December 1, 2022. US 2023/24 corn ending stocks came in at 2.162 billion bushels versus 2.094 billion expected (range 1.961-2.253 billion) and up from 2.131 billion in December. Production came in at 15.342 billion bushels versus 15.212 billion expected (range 15.068-15.364 billion) and 15.234 billion in December. Yield came in at 177.3 bushels/acre versus 174.7 expected and 174.9 in December. Harvested area came in at 86.5 million acres versus 87.3 million expected and 87.1 in December. World ending stocks came in at 325.2 million tonnes versus 313.8 million expected (range 309.5-318.0 million) and 315.2 million in December. Brazilian production came in at 127 million tonnes versus 126.5 million expected (range 122.0-129.0) and 129 million in December. Argentine production came in at 55 million tonnes versus 54.8 million expected and unchanged from December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: US grain stocks were above guesses, as were the US ending stocks numbers, and although harvested acres were cut slightly, a significant increase in 2023 corn yield of 2.4 bushels per acre was a bearish surprise. World ending stocks were well above the highest guesses on an increase in Chinese stocks, which adds to the bearishness of the report. South American production was near expectations. US ending stocks would have been more bearish after the significant jump in yield, but they were offset to some degree by increases in ethanol and feed/residual usage. The report was a clear disappointment for the bull camp.
WHEAT:
The quarterly USDA grain stocks report showed US all wheat stocks on December 1 at 1.410 billion bushels versus an average trade expectation of 1.391 billion and a range of expectations from 1.272 to 1.466 billion. This was up from 1.312 billion a year ago. US winter wheat seedings for 2024 came in at 34.425 million acres versus 35.7 million expected (range 34.5-39.4 million). This is down from 36.699 million in 2023. Hard red winter wheat seedings came in at 24.0 million acres versus 25.2 million expected (range 24.0-27.3 million) and 25.7 million in 2023. Soft red winter wheat came in at 6.86 million acres versus 7.0 million expected (range 6.2-8.6 million) and 7.4 million in 2023. White winter wheat came in at 3.54 million acres versus 3.6 million expected (range 3.4-3.8 million) and 3.6 million in 2023. US wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 came in at 648 million bushels versus 659 million expected (range 630-681 million) and 659 million in the December report. World ending stocks came in at 260.03 million tonnes versus 258.2 million expected (range 256-261.1 million) and 258.20 million in December.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Although grain stocks came in a little bit above the average guess, all winter wheat seedings were lowered by a surprising 700,000 acres and were nearly 2.2 million acres below 2023. Most of the decline was in HRW, which fell 1.2 million acres from expectations and were down 2.7 million from 2023. The global outlook featured larger consumption and higher ending stocks than last month. Although winter wheat acreage was below the guesses and US ending stocks were slightly lower than expectations, there was nothing in the report that would encourage aggressive bull positioning, especially with bearish action in wheat and corn today. Further weakness in the other grains could pull Chicago March wheat down toward the contract lows, just under 5.60.
Definition
This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.
Description
Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
