ActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.7%0.2%0.4%
Year over Year0.7%-0.1%-0.3%

Highlights

Retail sales rose a solid 0.7 percent on the month in November following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in October. The latest increase boosted annual growth from minus 0.3 percent to also 0.7 percent and lifted volumes to their highest level since last June.

The monthly headline advance was attributable to discretionary spending which rose fully 2.2 percent following a 0.4 percent gain at the start of the quarter. This was its third straight increase. By contrast, purchases of food, drink and tobacco were again weak, declining 0.2 percent after October's 0.6 percent drop.

Still, by and large, the Swiss consumer sector seems to be holding up relatively well. Average volume sales in October/November were up 1.1 percent versus their mean level in the third quarter and, absent any revisions, December would need at least a 3.3 percent monthly drop for the sector to subtract from fourth quarter GDP growth. Combined with the stronger than expected December CPI report, today's data will leave the SNB wary of delivering any premature cut in interest rates.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Description

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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