Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
Highlights
The final HICP also matched its flash reading and so still shows a slightly larger 0.2 percent increase on the month that raised its yearly rate to 3.8 percent. This was up from 2.3 percent in mid-quarter and 1.8 percentage points above the ECB's target.
The acceleration in the annual CPI rate was dominated by energy where inflation jumped from minus 4.5 percent to 4.1 percent. This lay behind the rate for overall goods jumping 1.1 percentage points to 4.1 percent. However, elsewhere, inflation in services eased from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent while food dropped nearly a full percentage point to 4.6 percent. As a result, the core rate declined from 3.8 percent to 3.5 percent.
The final December data confirm a decelerating trend in underlying inflation in the Eurozone's largest member state and will leave speculators contemplating when the first cut in ECB interest rates will be delivered. However, with the 2 percent target level still some was off, any move this quarter remains unlikely. Today's update puts the German RPI at minus 14 and the RPI-P at minus 10. Economic activity in general is still falling slightly short of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.