| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
Highlights
The labour market proved surprisingly robust in November. Unemployment unexpectedly fell, dropping fully 99,000 on the month to 10.97 million and that following a much smaller revised 9,000 rise in October. The mid-quarter decline was even steep enough to shave a tick off the jobless rate which, at 6.4 percent, was well below the market consensus and matched its record low.
The dip in the headline measure was largely attributable to Italy where unemployment dropped 66,000 to reduce the national rate by 0.2 percentage points to 7.5 percent. Elsewhere, Spain (11.9 percent after 12.0 percent) also registered a small decrease but there was no change in either France (7.3 percent) or Germany (3.1 percent).
Still, the surprising strength of today's report will not be wasted on an ECB that, for its future policy decisions, has underlined the importance of wage negotiations currently taking place in may Eurozone countries. The worry will be that wage growth in such a tight market will remain too high for too long, making a near-term monetary easing all the less likely. To this end, the November update leaves the region's RPI at 14 and the RPI-P at 28. Both readings show economic activity in general running somewhat ahead of market expectations.
The dip in the headline measure was largely attributable to Italy where unemployment dropped 66,000 to reduce the national rate by 0.2 percentage points to 7.5 percent. Elsewhere, Spain (11.9 percent after 12.0 percent) also registered a small decrease but there was no change in either France (7.3 percent) or Germany (3.1 percent).
Still, the surprising strength of today's report will not be wasted on an ECB that, for its future policy decisions, has underlined the importance of wage negotiations currently taking place in may Eurozone countries. The worry will be that wage growth in such a tight market will remain too high for too long, making a near-term monetary easing all the less likely. To this end, the November update leaves the region's RPI at 14 and the RPI-P at 28. Both readings show economic activity in general running somewhat ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for December's unemployment rate is a slight rise to 6.6 percent from November's near record low of 6.5 percent.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
Description
Unemployment data are closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.
Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.
Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.
Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
